Thursday, 5 May 2011

Are the bookies right?

As we approach the end of what most agree has been a fairly dull election I fancy there may be a way to spice it up in the last few hours.

A couple of bookmakers have been offering odds throughout the election and the odds are heavily stacked in favor of a very successful night for Labour.

This gives some very good value on bets on they 3 other parties.  Conservatives in Aberconway can still be got at 10 - 1 although this has come in a bit suggesting I am not the only person who felt the odds were too good to resist.  There are also very favorable odds on all the other seats they won in the recent Westminster Election.

There are also some very good value bets on Plaid (particularly in Carmarthen West) and if the expected Lib Dem capitulation does not materialise there could be some very happy punters who have backed them in places like Montgomeryshire and Ceredigion.

It will be interesting to see if the bookies have got this one wrong and applied UK trends to a Welsh Election.  I suspect they have and hope to make a small profit from them, but if they are right it will be a good night for Labour and an unprofitable one for me.

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