Plaid should be championing regional pay

The election of Leanne Wood as leader of Plaid Cymru is expected by many to see to the Party moving further to the left. Her comments today confirm this as she looks to cosy up with Labour.  This shift should open the door for the Conservative Party in Wales to start appealing directly to disaffected Plaid supporters.

A policy which caught my attention recently was regional pay.  The suggestion led to immediate outcry form unions as well as all of the Welsh political parties.  I can completely understand this reaction.  The short term impact of this policy would be to see the pay packets of much of the Welsh workforce shrinking and this would probably lead to the Welsh economy weakening in the short term.  With elections almost every year, few politicians have the ability to think of anything but the short term hence the negative reaction.

In the longer term however regional pay has the potential to help re balance the Welsh economy and make the Welsh private sector more competitive.  Currently Welsh companies have to pay higher wages to stop staff leaving for the public sector.  If the wages were lower Welsh business could charge lower prices and undercut competition from abroad and other parts of the UK.  It would take many years but in the long term it could be a huge boost for the Welsh economy.  At that stage prosperity would increase leading to increases in pay for public sector workers as well.  

Most Plaid supporters admit their long term goal is independence.  Public support for this has recently been shown to be very low, mainly I suspect because Plaid cannot put forward a sensible way that they would fund an independent Wales.  Regional pay may be bad news in the short term but anyone would genuinely wants to see Wales being in a position to raise more revenue than we spends should be giving it careful consideration.

That should mean that regional pay is a flagship policy for Plaid as a key way to make the Welsh economy more competitive.  In reality Plaid's only policy seems to be complaining that the English hand out is not big enough.  This gives the Welsh Conservative Party the ability to offer a far more positive message to the people of Wales.  Rather than complain about the size of the English hand out we can offer a prosperous future for the Welsh economy but only if we are brave enough to look at the long term.  Regional pay should be the first part of that message and if Wales gets tax varying powers a reduction in Welsh Corporation Tax should be step 2.

Swansea as a city must grab the current opportunity

Last night Swansea City started their first season in the Premier League.  Whilst the result was not great we all know that the sides survival this season will depend far more on games like the one this coming Saturday than one last night.

Never the less we have to accept that it will be a tough season and could ultimately end in relegation.  Hopefully Swansea will establish themselves as a Premiership club and we will have years of economic benefit, but we as a city will be kicking ourselves if we miss the opportunity and only survive one season.

It is crucial that we make a big impression on all of the fans who visit the area over the coming 10 months and sell ourselves both as a place to holiday and a place to do business.

There has been a debate in recent weeks on how much, if at all, the city will benefit economically.  Whilst pubs, restaurants and hotels will see some benefit whatever, the real lasting benefit is something we will have to make happen.

I agree with those who point out most fans only visit for the day of the game and come straight in and out but we still have an opportunity to sell the area to them.  With the fantastic beaches, golf courses, walking, scenery and seafront we have lots to sell but this needs to be done by somebody.   This is not the clubs responsibility and Swansea City Council or Visit Wales should be stepping in to help the club sell the area and ensure that visiting fans are left with a good impression of Wales.

They might not spend much when the come down on a cold January night but if we sell the area they will come back for a family holiday or a golf weekend.  This is the lasting benefit we can get for Swansea and the surrounding area.

Swansea will also have a global audience for the next 10 months.  Many of the people watching are people who do business in the UK or who want to do business in the UK & Europe.  This is a great opportunity to tell them that Swansea is a beautiful place to live and work and there is no better part of the UK to invest in.

Swansea will see an economic benefit whatever happens over the next year, the size of that benefit is down to us.  It is time for the Council, Visit Wales and the Assembly Government to work together and ensure we don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity.

Get on with the real job

The latest "big story" in the Assembly is the disqualification of two newly elected Lib Dem AM's.

I suspect that the vast majority of the Welsh Public share my view that I could not care less if the two AM's in question have broken a fairly minor rule.

The most important thing has to be that once the problem was found it was quickly rectified. (By making appropriate resignations)

As far as I am aware this happened so the new Assembly should be focusing on improving the lives of the people of Wales rather than wasting time discussing something which does nothing for the people that they are supposed to be representing.

Reflections on the Assembly Campaign

With a week now past since the Assembly Election it has to be said that the final result was more interesting than may predicted.

A number of prominent AM's lost their seats, the Conservatives overtook Plaid and there were some differing voting trends between North and South.

The pollsters pretty much got it spot on.  The commentators and the bookies were close but failed to appreciate the strength of Conservative support.  This I am happy to say this made it a profitable night for me although I am kicking myself for missing out on Angela Burns at 4/1.  The Plaid twitter campaign clearly had a far bigger effect on me in Swansea than it did on the good voters of Carmarthen West.  A lesson to be learnt there for somebody.

On reflection there are several things coming out of the election some of which I intend to explore further in future weeks.

1. Nick Bourne becoming a victim of his own success was sad, but his legacy is a Welsh Conservative Party that is in a strong position to kick on to become the alternative government to Labour in the future.

2.  The 3 opposition parties missed a huge opportunity to govern Wales 4 years ago.  Lessons must be learnt to ensure this opportunity is not missed next time.  By the time of the next election Labour will have been running Wales for 17 years.

3.  Whilst the result was bad for the Lib Dems they only lost 1 seat meaning that they are in a decent position to rebuild.  As the economy improves and they get the credit for the role they have played in that at Westminster they could come back stronger than ever.

4.  Plaid were probably the biggest losers.  A bad night for them was made worse by the fantastic result achieved by the SNP.  They lost a number of big hitters last week and are now at risk of becoming an very minor part of Welsh politics.

5.  The Conservatives are looking for a new leader and Plaid find themselves at a crossroads.  

Plaid will undoubtedly be looking to Scotland to try and learn lessons from the SNP success.  The first problem they have is that their leader is not is the same class as Alex Salmond.  The fact he has decided not to stand down straight away is a clear sign there is no one in the background of sufficient caliber to take over.The second is that the SNP have become increasingly center-right in their policies and this helped them take votes off the both the Lib Dems and the Conservatives.  This political shift something it is hard to see Plaid doing.  

It may be that the Welsh Conservatives are the Party who can learn most from the SNP success and I look forward to hearing the different leadership candidates setting out their visions over the coming months.  

Are the bookies right?

As we approach the end of what most agree has been a fairly dull election I fancy there may be a way to spice it up in the last few hours.

A couple of bookmakers have been offering odds throughout the election and the odds are heavily stacked in favor of a very successful night for Labour.

This gives some very good value on bets on they 3 other parties.  Conservatives in Aberconway can still be got at 10 - 1 although this has come in a bit suggesting I am not the only person who felt the odds were too good to resist.  There are also very favorable odds on all the other seats they won in the recent Westminster Election.

There are also some very good value bets on Plaid (particularly in Carmarthen West) and if the expected Lib Dem capitulation does not materialise there could be some very happy punters who have backed them in places like Montgomeryshire and Ceredigion.

It will be interesting to see if the bookies have got this one wrong and applied UK trends to a Welsh Election.  I suspect they have and hope to make a small profit from them, but if they are right it will be a good night for Labour and an unprofitable one for me.

Time to work together

A couple of blows for Welsh economic prospects in the last week.

First came the news that BMI baby are pulling out of Wales.  Then we heard that unemployment had risen in Wales whilst falling everywhere else in the UK.

The decision of BMI did not surprise me but it did concern me.  I have long felt that Cardiff airport is not fit for purpose.  Unfortunately its location means that unless you live in the South of Cardiff or the Vale of Glamorgan it is difficult to get to.  This in turn leads to  fewer passengers (as most people head to Bristol or even London) and fewer services.  The airport also suffers from poor transport links in particular to Swansea and West Wales.

It is not therefore a surprise to see operators pulling out.

If we are truly ambitious for the Welsh economy  a new airport should be at the top of our list of priorities.  I recently flew from Gatwick and the amount of economic benefit for miles in every direction is plain to see.  If we built an airport close the the M4 and with high quality train links the benefits to the Welsh economy would be huge.

My main concern with the second news story regarding unemployment was the reaction of the political parties.  All  seemed immediately to blame someone else.  The truth is the Welsh economy is now to some degree the responsibility of each Party.  Labour and Plaid have control of economic development in Cardiff whilst the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats hold the major fiscal levers in London.

All parties have come up with some useful suggestions for the Welsh economy but now is the time for delivery.  It is too important an issue to be used as a political football.

Who ever ends up running Wales from next month, they need to make the economy their first priority.  Given the joint responsibility of the parties it would be good to see them working together on the economy rather that constantly passing the buck.

Welcome Good News

There was a very welcome bit of good news over the weekend for the Swansea economy.

A Wales Online article highlighted a Royal Mail survey which showed Swansea was 2nd in the UK for new business growth in recent months.

I get lists of new business starts in the area as well as lists of businesses that have moved into Swansea and I too have seen a large growth in the numbers over the last 5 months.

This has to be a positive sign and I hope it is evidence that the private sector in Swansea is growing.

We are often too quick to draw attention to the bad news at the moment and it is worth highlighting economic success as well.